Blog reconstituted.

It’s back. I moved it on to a new server. I lost some pictures, and some messages too, sorry.

I am not sure if the old logins are still working for the users. Look for Rob Soltysik on Facebook and tell me.

The new address is:

I’m going to try to get the old one working too:

The Helsinki cesium-137 spike.

An abnormally high spike in cesium-137 was detected in Helsinki, Finland on March 3 and 4. It measured 4,000 microbecquerels per cubic meter of air. It was the highest reading since immediately after the Chernobyl catastrophe in 1986.

Officials at STUK, Finland’s radiation protection agency, explained the spike by somebody tracking cesium on their shoes in the parking garage:

In a bizarre twist, nuclear safety regulator STUK said in a statement that caesium-137, a radioactive isotope of caesium, had been tracked to the basement and garage of the very same building where it has its offices.

“In the same building there is also a company that deals with low-level radioactive waste,” STUK said.

Yes, this organization dedicated to radiation safety shares their building with dealers in low-level radioactive waste. Yes, this is bizarre, but perhaps not too surprising, given the track record of radiation protection organizations in covering up radiation disasters.

And you gotta wonder where their detector is, how the particles made it there, etc.

Leaving this strangeness behind, maybe we can explain this by an authentic emission of radioactivity from somewhere. I used HYSPLIT to trace back any wind-driven plume. STUK was not too specific as to the timing, though… they said it was “between March 3 and 4”. So I used midnight local time on the night of the 3rd as the terminus.

The path brings up two possibilities:

Theory 1. The Leningrad nuclear plant is nearby, and the plume path is very close to this location. Last December, there was a radioactive release from this plant. The plume went up through Finland, and the spike was visible on many monitors. Maybe something happened at this plant again.

Theory 2. The plume path intersects the Arctic Ocean at the city of Severomorsk. “The town is the main administrative base of the Russian Northern Fleet. Severomorsk has the largest dry dock on the Kola Peninsula.” (Wikipedia) This would suggest an accident with a Russian naval submarine.

Another possibility is Fukushima, but this spike is higher than any in 2011, and this would seem unlikely. Though the Fuku plant has been actively emitting steam recently.

There is additional discussion at the Allegedly Apparent Blog.

The anti-nuclear movement.

The established anti-nuclear movement does not speak for me. They minimize Fukushima, they ignore or deny the ecological crisis in the Pacific, they deny that spent fuel pool #4 is toast. They let the powers that be decide the scope of the conversation. While I applaud the limited and rare victories they may have, I am not on their “team”. They have no right to tell me what to think or say. They have no experience in dealing the daily realities of radiation-induced illness. And they don’t give a damn about those like me that have to live like that every day.

Smoke rises from the Sendai nuclear power plant in Japan.

The Sendai nuclear plant is the first Japanese facility to be started after all the nuclear plants were taken offline in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear catastrophe. The Unit 1 reactor was started on August 11. It was expected that energy would be produced from it by Friday. Smoke started coming out of it on Saturday. (link)

Here is a video a citizen took at the gates of the plant. You can skip to the 20:00 mark.

Shooting location is 31.828774, point of 130.192194. (Google map, check their street view.)

Photographer has reportedly dosimeter has risen to 0.2μSv / h.

By location, depending on the viewing angle that is, rather than the color of the smoke has been changed, the color of the smoke itself is changing.

Smoke generation location, it is estimated that exits from the front of the Unit 1 turbine building around. (Unit 1 from the front, Unit 2 of the order.) (link)

The opening of this nuclear plant was widely protested by citizen groups. The Kyushu Electric Power Co. was criticized for not addressing volcano issues from the nearby Sakurajima volcano.

But the utility has not designated a site for relocating nuclear fuel in the event of a massive volcanic eruption, claiming that warning signs would give Kepco enough time to prepare and transfer the fuel.

The utility and the Nuclear Regulation Authority have also decided there is little chance of a major volcanic eruption in the next several decades.

In the event of a major eruption, however, pyroclastic flows could reach the plant and disable cooling functions for its reactors and spent fuel, which could trigger massive radioactive emissions.

There are five major calderas around the Sendai plant, suggesting that massive eruptions have occurred there.

The plant currently stores 1,946 fuel assemblies in spent fuel pools. The sheer volume makes it hard to find a relocation site big enough to take them. (link)

On Saturday a Level 4 warning was issued for the eruption of Sakurajima.

From Mining Awareness Plus,

“It is the first time that the Level 4 alert has been issued for Sakurajima since the volcanic eruption alert system was introduced in 2007.”…

“The analysis reveals that Kyushu Electric has underestimated the potential impacts of ash deposits on operations of the Sendai nuclear reactors following a major volcanic eruption. This could lead to loss of electrical power and cooling function for the reactors and a nuclear accident… 30 cm ash layers at the nuclear plant would exceed the building code for the spent fuel buildings with the risk of structural collapse.”

Whether the smoke coming out of the plant has anything to do with this, who knows. Nuclear power in Japan has been proved to be a dangerous and disastrous proposition.

Another fire in Chernobyl exclusion zone. Increasing I-131 and emissions at Fukushima.

The latest wildfire to break out near Chernobyl has consumed 130 hectares. It started on June 29, and it is unclear whether it is still burning or not.

Experts have recorded 0.0025 becquerels of Cesium-137 per cubic meter of air. The inspection found that it is beyond the measures usually observed.

According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Emergency Situations, the fire in the Chernobyl exclusion zone continues, firefighters are unable to resolve the situation. (link)

Air near the desolated settlement of Polesskoye in the Chernobyl zone is contaminated with the radioactive element cesium-137. Its content in the air has reached a level called “sequence above the norm” (approximately ten times the norm), the State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate of Ukraine (SNRI) reported on Wednesday.

Cesium-137 is one of the most dangerous nuclear elements, as it accumulates in the body and can lead to leukemia. (link)

The radiation risk involves the fire spreading to areas closer to the plant. But there is no danger of a new explosion.

Fire near the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in Ukraine poses a danger to the surrounding regions, expert of the Polish branch of Greenpeace Jan Haverkamp told TASS on Thursday.

“We are monitoring the situation. Fortunately, the fire has not yet reached the NPP reactor zone. It’s very dangerous that everything is happening in the nuclear power plant area. If the fire spreads there, a huge amount of radiation will get into the atmosphere,” he said. “It’s a risk, but the risk primarily to Ukraine, Russia and Belarus, as they are located in close vicinity,” Haverkamp said.

According to him, there will be no explosion, similar to the 1986 accident, and Eastern European countries, including Poland, have now nothing to worry about.

“We welcome the efforts of Ukrainian authorities that are doing their utmost to prevent the fire from spreading,” the expert said. (link)

Meanwhile, iodine-131 continues to spew out of the destroyed Fukushima nuclear plant in Japan. I-131 started rising in April, and it was detected in Scandinavia in early May.

These readings from Niigata prefecture sewage sludge in June indicate the highest level of I-131 since September 2013 (which was gnarly).

Sludge from Fukushima prefecture shows that I-131 was rising in the later part of May:

A surge in iodine-131 emissions indicates a recriticality is taking place. It also means that the corium is heating up. This isotope causes thyroid cancer and other thyroid and pituitary diseases.

And an emission event was observed yesterday by the webcam watchers at Enenews:

July 1, 2015 at 9:50 pm Log in to Reply
Alert for radiation readings this week:

People watching the webcams have reported an event ongoing at Fukushima

Pure water, Majia, Nuckelchen, Horse, irhologram and many others are posting images and describing an event with:

yellow gases coming up from the ground
black smoke
Pink skies, etc.

Fallout from such an event would likely hit the west coast by July 4th, and the rest of the U.S. thereafter.

Some of their images:

Majia has a good summary of this event on her blog.

Iodine-131 detections in Finland and Norway preceded by detections in Japan.

The STUK radiation protection agency of Finland announced Tuesday that iodine-131 had been detected in the Lapland area of northern Finland, and that I-131 also had been detected in Norway, between May 4-11.

Also, cesium-134, niobium-95, and cobalt-60 were found in southeast Finland. These two types of detections may or may not be related.

These detections were not caused by the Chernobyl forest fire, since I-131 decays away in 80 days, and Cs-134 decays away in 20 years. The Chernobyl catastrophe occurred in 1986, 29 years ago.

Iodine-131 levels in Gunma prefecture sludge skyrocketed on their May 1 report to the highest readings since the huge Fukushima emissions of July 2013. These analyses were actually done in April 21-23. This area is to the southwest of the Fukushima plant.

Toyahashi sludge was also elevated on April 21. This area is to the west of Tokyo.

The lag time involved for the gaseous iodine to move from Japan to Scandinavia would allow the I-131 to decay by 50-75%, so the Finland and Norway detections are more robust than they look at first glance.

On May 12, I-131 was found in Chiba prefecture drinking water (not sludge). So it looks like the latest fission event is still going on.

I-131 was also (possibly) detected in river water in Avignon, France. But, as was explained here by the head of the CRIIRAD laboratory, this energy range measure also includes cesium and natural NORM radionuclides. They had to change the verbiage on their graphs due to this blog.

Chernobyl forest fire plume now on the US west coast.

The forest fire near Chernobyl that broke out a week ago has spread radionuclides, notably plutonium, over eastern Europe, Asia, Alaska, and is now moving in over the west coast of the US.

This image from the downloaded Windows HYSPLIT atmospheric dispersion model shows the spread of this plume, as of 2 PM Eastern time on May 7.

This simulation uses actual winds, not predicted winds.

It has moved over southern Alaska, where it is currently raining, and northern B.C. Some tendrils have moved over NW Washington, Salinas CA, Fresno CA, Santa Barbara CA, and Las Vegas NV.

For users of Google Earth or other visualization software, a KML file is available here.

As of Friday morning, the rain outside of Fresno has some measure of this smoke plume mixed in with it, and is falling as snow in the mountains to the northeast.

The plume should become entrained in a storm that is developing in this area. This image is a forecast for Saturday night. A snowstorm is moving over the Rockies, and the rain and snow will later move over the northern plains, the upper Great Lakes, into Canada.

Largest forest fire since 1992 endangers Chernobyl nuclear plant.

A forest fire has broken out in the Chernobyl exclusion zone, within 20 km of the nuclear plant.

(Sputnik) The forest fire is being fought by more than 200 firefighters, National Guard was put on high alert… A forest fire has erupted in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone. More than 200 firefighters, 15 fire engines, two aircraft and one helicopter are battling the fire, according to Ukraine’s acting emergencies minister Zoran Shkiryak.

Ukraine’s Interior Minister Arsen Avakov wrote on his Facebook page that as of 6:30 PM Kiev time (3:30 PM GMT) the situation had gotten worse and the fire was approaching the Chernobyl nuclear plant.

“The forest fire is heading in the direction of Chernobyl’s installations. Treetop flames and strong gusts of wind have created a real danger of the fire spreading to an area within 20 kilometers of the power plant. There are about 400 hectares [988 acres] of forests in the endangered area. The Prime Minister has called an urgent session of the emergencies commission. National Guard and Interior Ministry forces have been put on combat alert”, Avakov’s statement reads…

According to the statement, Yatsenyuk has stressed that the authorities are tackling the situation despite the fact that the fire is the largest seen since 1992.

According to this article (Russian, Google translation):

Fire on the territory of special plant “Chornobyl Forest” can lead to secondary contamination by radioactive substances, said in comments RIA Novosti Ukrainian ecologist Vladimir Boreyko.

It is worth noting that according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, in the exclusion zone of 400 hectares of forest burn. However, according to environmentalists, which is based on images from space, fire area exceeds 10 thousand hectares…

As stated in an interview with RT Deputy Coordinator “Environmental Watch on the North Caucasus,” Dmitry Shevchenko when burning wood is not only carbon dioxide emissions, and soot, which spreads over hundreds and thousands of kilometers. Fire around the Chernobyl zone, according to experts, is dangerous because the radionuclides contained in the wood, into the atmosphere, may fall anywhere and spread over a long distance.

Shevchenko said that the Chernobyl zone is especially important to preserve the forest, because they are naturally conservative radionuclides that accumulate in the soil and wood.

Ukrainian ecologist Vladimir Boreyko believes that the fire on the territory of special plant “Chornobyl Forest” can lead to secondary contamination by radioactive substances. “We need to figure out where it burns wood: where the radiation spot, or where these spots are not. If there are spots where there is, it’s just air pollution. If there are spots where it is, of course, that’s too bad, because it is a secondary contamination by radioactive substances “- quoted by RIA Novosti ecologist.”

It was discovered recently that trees did not decay in the highly contaminated Red Forest near Chernobyl.

Scientists who have been studying the environment inside the Zone of Alienation since 1991 noticed something about these trees, specifically what they described as “a significant accumulation of litter over time” in a study published recently in Oecologia. And by “significant,” they mean the trees are not decomposing and their leaves are just sitting there on the ground, not decomposing either. This is especially so in the Red Forest, an area of woodland around Chernobyl named thusly because the trees turned a ginger color and died due to the worst radiation poisoning in the area. In an interview with Smithsonian magazine, lead author of the study and biologist at the University of South Carolina Timothy Mousseau called all this non-decayed organic matter “striking, given that in the forests where I live, a fallen tree is mostly sawdust after a decade of lying on the ground.”

The reason for this lack of decay around Chernobyl is that microbes, bacteria, fungi, worms, insects, and other living organisms known as decomposers (because they feed on dead organisms) are just not there and not doing their jobs. Mousseau and his team discovered this after leaving 600 bags of leaves around Chernobyl in 2007. When they collected the bags in 2008, they found that the bags filled with leaves placed in areas with no radiation had decomposed by 70 to 90 percent, but the leaves in areas with radiation? They only decomposed about 40 percent. “There is growing concern that there could be a catastrophic fire in the coming years,” Mousseau told Smithsonian. (link)

Last week, smoke from massive Siberian fires was seen on satellite over the US east coast. Expect this plume to hit the US within a week.

No corium in Fukushima Unit 1 reactor vessel.

The muon scan of the Unit 1 reactor vessel at Fukushima has been completed. No nuclear fuel was fuel in it. No surprise.

According to this article at Simply Info,

TEPCO published the results of the muon scan done by IRID and their cooperating partners. No fuel was found in the reactor vessel of unit 1 Fukushima Daiichi… This was as expected by many (including us) who have been documenting the other evidence that indicated this was the likely case… Also noted on these images was the lack of detectable solid vessel in the bottom head area. The center lower section of the reactor vessel appears to be missing. The uniform dark outline of the reactor vessel is noticeably missing…

The corium has burned through the vessel and has melted through to the basemat and drywell floor. The question is whether it burned through that too, into the soil underneath. I would say this is very likely.

From this long Sandia pdf,

The drywell floor is subdivided into three regions (i.e., cavities) for the purposes of modeling molten-core/concrete interactions (see Figure 20). The first region, which receives core debris exiting the reactor vessel, corresponds to the reactor pedestal floor and sump areas (CAV 0).

Debris that accumulates in CAV 0 can flow out through a doorway in the pedestal wall to a second region representing a 90 degree sector of the drywell floor (CAV 1). If debris accumulates in this region to a sufficient depth, it can spread further around the annular drywell floor into the third region (CAV 2). This discrete representation of debris spreading is illustrated in Figure 20. (p. 64)

It was already assumed that the molten fuel had interacted with the concrete:

The three accidents (i.e., the accidents in Units 1, 2, and 3), while similar in many ways in terms of SBO accident progression, each proceeded to different degrees of core damage, with Unit 1 believed to be the most severely damaged of the three. It is believed that the Unit 1 core damage proceeded to the point of lower vessel head failure that released core materials to the containment cavity where core-concrete interactions likely initiated. Units 2 and 3 are believed to be less damaged. Collectively, the accidents likely reflect varying degrees of core/reactor damage and are therefore an invaluable source of information that can validate/confirm our current understanding of severe reactor accidents and provide new understanding not currently realized in our body of knowledge. (p. 18)

I was already talking about the corium-concrete reaction when I was still posting at the Japan Earthquake scribble. This must have been in early 2011. The corium-concrete reaction liberates all sorts of radionuclides that wouldn’t have been released otherwise, and the concrete particles help spread the radioactive particles into the wind.

Note high levels of Ba-140 and La-140 on March 15-16. Lanthanum-140 is the daughter product of Barium-140… If a TMI-style meltdown occurred, using Dr. Saji’s inventory figures (below), there would have been a 23:1 ratio of I-131 to Te-129m released. The Takasaki figures indicate a 1:2 ratio. The data do not support this scenario…

“This study describes the increase in iodine activity released to the atmosphere during a severe accident due to the radioactive decay of tellurium precursors… here it is seen that the iodine activity in the atmosphere is due disproportionately to I-132. Unlike the longer-lived isotopes, most I-132 (half-life of 2.30 hr.) existing early in the accident will decay before the significant atmospheric releases which follow reactor vessel failure. However, the supply is replenished by the decay of Te-132, which is released in large quantities from the drywell rubble.”

Takasaki is almost 100 miles from the Fukushima plant. Thus most of the I-132 which was released would be decayed. The large amounts of I-132 detected must have come from the decay of Te-132.

From p. 533, “Upon contact, the molten core material (the so-called “corium”) starts to react with the material of the basemat concrete… when the reaction zone is flooded with sump water… the highest temperatures might be reached… the molten-core – concrete interaction is the principal source of the release of the low-volatility fission products to the containment. The volatilization of these elements, such as barium, strontium, lanthanum, and cerium, is strongly supported by the gas bubbles which penetrate through the molten zone.”

Note again the high concentrations of barium and lanthanum, and that of tellurium.

Conclusion: The emissions observed at Takasaki were not due to a TMI-style accident, but one in which corium interacted with concrete and water. This released significant concentrations of barium, lanthanum, and strontium into the atmosphere.

Well, it’s about time they did this scan. It’s only been 4 years.

FUKU+4 HEALTH NOTE: Really nasty hand-foot-mouth rash on my hands and feet. This is from a disseminated enterovirus infection, from a virus I caught almost a year ago. I don’t know what strain or type of enterovirus it is. It has infected the neurons in the brain and spinal cord (thus it is myalgic encephalomyelitis). Minor improvement today… I did a technical thing, added a Mid-p feature to my Fisher’s exact test program for large samples. It is good to know that I can do math and scientific programming again. Things are still dire, though.

Fuku+4. Cancer rates start taking off.

The 4-year anniversary of the catastrophe at the Fukushima Daiichi is upon us. Radioactive emissions into the air and the Pacific Ocean continue, as they apparently will for centuries or millenia.

Radioactive contamination of air, water, and food is causing and will continue to cause cancer, heart disease, and all immune-related disease, including neurological disease, indefinitely.

But there is a latency period, or time lag, between initial radiation exposure and the development of these diseases. This document, issued by the World Trade Center Health Program, officially determines the minimum latency of types of cancers subsequent to the 9/11 disaster in 2001. This determination was stipulated by Congress after the passage of the James Zadroga 9/11 Health and Compensation Act of 2010.

The assessment of minimum latency periods for various types or categories of cancer is straightforward when exposures occur at a single point in time or regularly. However, most human exposures to carcinogens vary significantly over time, making a precise determination of minimum latency periods difficult… Therefore, the Administrator derived minimum latency estimates using several methods based on the best available scientific evidence for each type or category of cancer considered…

4B: Estimates of cancer latency obtained from statistical models used to estimate the lifetime risk of low-level ionizing radiation-related cancers.

The use of a radiation-induced cancer latency estimate is supported by scientific literature indicating shared mechanisms of carcinogenesis that apply to most solid tumors. Furthermore, cancers that may develop as a result of radiation exposure are indistinguishable from those that occur as a result of exposure to other carcinogens.

If multiple estimates of minimum latency based on statistical modeling in epidemiologic studies were available in the scientific literature, the Administrator’s policy is to resolve any uncertainties inherent in this method [Latency Method 4] in favor of the WTC Health Program member by selecting the shortest latency period…

For solid cancers as a group, an estimate of minimum latency of 4 years is available from statistical modeling of risk between exposure to low-level ionizing radiation and solid cancers [Latency Method 4B].

So cancer latency associated with 9/11 dust is the same as cancer latency associated with Fukushima radiation.

The Administrator has selected minimum latencies for the following five types or categories of cancer:

(1) Mesothelioma — 11 years;
(2) All solid cancers (other than mesothelioma, lymphoproliferative, thyroid, and childhood cancers) — 4 years;
(3) Lymphoproliferative and hematopoietic cancers (including all types of leukemia and lymphoma) — 0.4 years (146 days);
(4) Thyroid cancer — 2.5 years; and
(5) Childhood cancers (other than lymphoproliferative and hematopoietic cancers) — 1 year.

So leukemia and lymphoma started developing in some people a few months after 3/11/11. I’m thinking here of Kevin Blanch, who developed AML leukemia in this time frame… though there are many others.

All other childhood cancers (20 years old or less) started developing in March 2012.

Thyroid cancer in adults started developing in September 2013.

All solid cancers in adults start developing NOW.

Solid cancers are all cancers involving solid tumors like breast cancer, colon cancer, lung cancer, liver cancer, etc.

There is nothing hard and fast about this. Some people have developed cancer already, before this minimum latency period. But this is an official number that was developed as a result of a trade-off. These minimum latencies are in stark contrast to latencies of 5, 10, 20 years that are used in medical literature, and skew results to the pro-nuclear side.

But the Fuku+4 point is significant, not just for minimum latencies, but for the point when certain cancer rates start accelerating. Thyroid cancer in Chernobyl children started taking off at the Chernobyl+4 point.

Sickness in general, among Chernobyl liquidators and their children, also significantly rose at the Chernobyl+4 point. This is very simple, the subject is either sick (from anything), or not. The rise in the sickness rates of the children show that this phenomenon was not due to aging.