Well, something is going on. Yesterday I went to two stores, and I actually went for a walk halfway around the shopping mall. I have not walked that much in two months. In fact, I hardly have been going out of the house at all more than once a week. I did pay for it today, with increased neurological symptoms.
But I decided the hell with it, I was going to do an analysis. I haven’t done any programming for four months, ever since the flu/M.E. nightmare started.
Let me tell you how important computer programming is to me. I started programming in 1971, when me and my friend Joel would sneak into the computer lab after hours in high school. They had a phone modem thingy. My first program was a computer baseball program written in BASIC. I picked up the language as I went along.
When I went to college, I learned FORTRAN by using punchcards. This ain’t easy. Punchcards are hardcore. They teach you to not make mistakes. This isn’t the touchy-feely BS they teach nowadays. I am a scientific programmer. I need speed and control.
I bought the original IBM PC in 1982. One of my first programs was an astrology program. I programmed the movement of the planets, any day for 1,000 years. I had to learn Bessel functions and that kind of stuff.
I have developed large database-driven systems for corporations. I have been invited to organize two major conference sessions in academic systems engineering. I have been wined and dined by corporate executives for a printing press scheduling program I wrote. (There is a story behind this. It goes into the inexplicable-things-that-have-happened-to-Bobby1 category. Not right now.)
So I have been always programming, for work, or for my own enjoyment or interests. Till I got sick.
Today, after four months, I was able to do an analysis. It just involved programming in VBA, nothing special. Though the data set was so large I had to expand MegaODA, so I had to find the program, expand its limits to 3 million observations, and recompile it in FORTRAN. I forgot if my computer had SSE4.1 on it, so I had to find and run CPU-Z to verify this.
This is like a marathon runner who suffers a devastating injury, and four months later, is able to take a few halting steps, while everyone applauds. Except nobody is applauding. I have a warm feeling in my heart, that’s all.
THANK YOU JESUS!
Oh, and by the way, this is the most significant result yet on American patients’ health in relation to Fukushima. It is more significant than my 2011 mortality study.
The data came from the Genetic Disease Screening Program at the California Department of Public Health. These are TSH (thyroid stimulating hormone) levels of California newborns for the period 2009-2012. Mangano, Sherman, and Busby used this same dataset for their paper on congenital hypothyroidism which was incomprehensibly botched. Dr. Yarnold and I made comments on this paper here.
While Mangano et al. created arbitrary classifications of hypothyroidism, which are not used in practice, these results reflect TSH levels before and after Fuku. TSH is implicated in many diseases, not just hypothyroidism. It affects the entire hypothalamus-pituitary-thyroid axis. For one thing, increased TSH levels cause the newborn to absorb more iodine-131 than average TSH newborns would.
This is also important because it involves the effect of all species of radioisotopes, I-131, Cs-137, Pu-239, etc. etc. We don’t know if only I-131 affects newborns, in fact Dr. Bandazhevsky has shown that Cs-137 affects thyroids too.
The data have been split up into three seasons:
1. January 1 – March 16
2. March 17 – June 30
3. July 1 – December 31
It involves virtually the entire population of California newborns for the years 2009-2012.
AFTERFUK is an indicator variable, which equals 1 if the birth was after Fukushima, and 0 otherwise. “IF 4.5 < TSH THEN AFTERFUK = 1" means than if TSH is greater than 4.5 (actually 4.99 in the original data), then the newborn is classified as being born after Fukushima. ODA uses maximum-accuracy classification - no model of this form achieves higher classification accuracy. No distributional assumptions are involved. All three seasons, and the combined data also, show increased TSH levels after Fukushima, and all are statistically significant by two-tailed UniODA at the p<.01 level. The ESS levels vary from 3.90% to 8.02%. The effect is weak, but I am not a thyroid doctor. Since over two million newborns are involved, even a small effect has consequences for many newborns. I would think that something that would affect even 100 newborns is a big huge deal.