INTRODUCTION
Fukushima Voice has a report of the Tenth Report of Fukushima Prefecture Health Management Survey, which has just been released. These are outcomes of ultrasound examinations of 94,975 children residing in Fukushima prefecture, from April 1, 2012 through January 21, 2013 (fiscal year FYH24). These outcomes included the existence and size measurements of thyroid nodules and cysts in these children. A previous set of examinations of 38,114 children, from the previous fiscal year (FYH23), October 2011 through March 2012, also measured these outcomes. It was found that in the previous fiscal year, 3 children had already undergone surgery for thyroid cancer. 7 more were found to have an 80% chance of having thyroid cancer, based on biopsy results.
The rate of thyroid abnormalities in these children for April 2012 – January 2013 were compared to the rate of abnormalities for October 2011 – March 2012, in order to determine if this rate had significantly increased. Also, the rate of thyroid cancer for FYH23 was compared to a previously established rate of incidence of this disease. Both sets of measurements were made after the onset of the Fukushima nuclear catastrophe.
METHODS
Fisher’s exact test (FISHER) and optimal discriminant analysis (ODA) were utilized to compare the rates of incidence of thyroid nodules and cysts. These tests were performed by Optimal Data Analysis for Windows (using the author’s modified copy). Binomial probabilities (BINOMIAL) were used to compare thyroid cancer incidence rates. These probabilities were computed by Excel Statistics Spreadsheets Helper. The prior rate of thyroid cancer (1-3 cases per million) was obtained from this link. The upper end of this range (3 cases per million) was used in the proportion comparison.
The significance level adopted for these analyses was P < 0.05. RESULTS
Large nodules were defined as those greater than 5mm in size, and large cysts greater than 20mm in size.
The effect size indicator ESPV (effect strength for predictive value) was used instead of the more familiar ESS (effect strength for sensitivity), due to the very small incidences of large thyroid nodules and cysts relative to the population, which rendered ESS meaningless in the context.
The use of Mid-P probabilities was discussed in a previous post. They were generated in ODA for Windows by using the ADJUST keyword of the MCARLO command. Mid-P overcomes the excess conservatism in Fisher’s exact test (and equivalently, ODA, in this context), and in all discrete statistics in general, avoiding the waste of statistical power.
The use of one-tailed statistics was also discussed in the previous post. The Fukushima Daiichi catastrophe released huge amounts of radioactive iodine-131, which was attested to by the Japanese government, MEXT, Tepco, the CTBTO, and many researchers. Iodine-131 is well established as a cause for thyroid cancer and abnormalities, as attested to by uncountable scientific articles, the ECRR, ICRP, IAEA, which used data from atmospheric nuclear testing, Sellafield, Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, radiotherapy, and many other nuclear accidents, dumping sites, and mishaps. Thus we are only interested if these thyroid abnormalities increased or not, and are not concerned with whether they decreased as a result of this catastrophe. There is no evidence that the release of iodine-131 protects anyone from thyroid cancer or abnormalities. Also, the precautionary principle in epidemiology argues that harm should be assumed, and the onus of proof is on those arguing that there is no risk from an environmentally harmful action. Therefore, Mid-P one-tailed statistics are both correct and ethically required in this case. Two-tailed non-Mid-P statistics have been included in the above table also, since they are overwhelmingly used in scientific literature, even though in this case it is both incorrect and unethical to use them.
It can be seen from the table that the rate of incidence of large nodules is significantly increased over the prior time period. The rate of large cysts has increased also, but the small number of children with these cysts has resulted in lack of significance, as evidenced by the higher ESPV. The rate of cysts of all sizes has significantly increased in a powerful way.
Since it is possible for a child to have both a nodule and a cyst, rates for having either of these conditions were included. Large nodules or cysts were significantly increased, as well the number of children with any nodule or cyst.
The thyroid cancer rate from FYH23 was also seen to significantly increase in a powerful way, relative to the rate from before the Fukushima catastrophe. This is true for both the small (3 cases) and the large (10 cases) estimates.
The social and ecological importance of these findings is obtained from the effect size, not P-values. Though the values of ESPV might seem low relative to an ordinary experiment, in this context with a large sample size, an extremely vulnerable population, and the likelihood that disease will increase over many years, the medical and ecological significance of these findings is huge.
CONCLUSIONS
The rates of incidence of thyroid cysts and large thyroid nodules in Fukushima children has been shown to be significantly increasing since the Fukushima nuclear catastrophe. The rate of thyroid cancer has also increased since the disaster. The social, medical and ecological significance of these results is unquestionable. Everything that is possible should be done to treat these children, and to prevent more thyroid disease from arising in Fukushima, in Japan, and all across the world.
Now,…if you could just teach the medical community what a cyst IS,…..maybe they will take *CYSTS* seriously! Right now in the US,…unless you have GREAT benefits or cash,….a *CYST* is nothing more than ‘something to watch’!
A C/T in 8/08 showed a very large *cyst* on the right lobe of my liver. They never gave me an answer on what it WAS. They said they’d watch it. Yeah,….they watched it morph into cancer, diagnosed on 10/30/2009! Wankers!
If you have a *CYST*, or a NODULE,…..it’s a fungal form colony! With time,…it will ‘cocoon up’, protected by ‘acidic glue’ that disallows any medicine or herb, anti-fungal in! Only baking soda will flush out a *cyst* or Nodule.
DO NOT BE DECEIVED!
We ALL have acidosis,…..some actually having progressed to Auto-intoxication!
Baking soda and raw maple syrup will pull you back up to 7.45 alkaline! 🙂
Sorry, infomercial over! 🙂
I love you ALL!
Jilly
Jilly… you had a cyst… then you got bathed in radiation from the CT… a year later it’s cancer!
I’m thinking from what is happening to me, that the damage to the organ from inflammation is what is leading to fungal colonization. The fungus releases toxic myctoxins… your body fights off the mycotoxins resulting in inflammation… and round and round we go. Radiation just turns up the volume knob on the whole deal.
May be connected to the horizontal voluntary survey of physicians. I have seen blood test, and important. Stack of evidence to help. @ KinositaKouta looking … hemogram, reduction of neutrophils in particular, about 60 percent of doctors in our group is looking at nearly 1,000 children in the metropolitan area. Things are imminent.
https://twitter.com/Shimazono (Japanese)
Neutropenia (noo-troe-PEE-nee-uh) is an abnormally low count of neutrophils, a type of white blood cell that helps fight off infections, particularly those caused by bacteria and fungi… The lower your neutrophil count, the more vulnerable you are to infectious diseases. If you have severe neutropenia — fewer than about 500 cells per microliter of blood — bacteria normally present in your mouth and digestive tract can cause infections.
http://www.mayoclinic.com/health/neutropenia/MY00110
“So, there is a possibility that thyroid cancer is out already about 50 people,” Dr. Yamada → Ministry of the Environment → attorney well 2/20
http://kiikochan.blog136.fc2.com/blog-entry-2792.html (Japanese)
Nuclear Regulatory Authority wants to discontinue thyroid testing for Fukushima children
http://fukushima-diary.com/2013/02/nra-suggested-the-proposal-to-discontinue-thyroid-test-for-fukushima-children/
Fukushima Rescue Mission Lasting Legacy: Radioactive Contamination of Americans
The Department of Defense has decided to walk away from an unprecedented medical registry of nearly 70,000 American service members, civilian workers, and their families caught in the radioactive clouds blowing from the destroyed nuclear power plants at Fukushima Daiichi in Japan.
The decision to cease updating the registry means there will be no way to determine if patterns of health problems emerge among the members of the Marines, Army, Air Force, Corps of Engineers, and Navy stationed at 63 installations in Japan with their families. In addition, it leaves thousands of sailors and Marines in the USS Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group 7 on their own when it comes to determining if any of them are developing problems caused by radiation exposure.
http://www.newjerseynewsroom.com/nation/a-lasting-legacy-of-the-fukushima-rescue-mission-part-1-radioactive-contamination-of-americ#
Those 7 children with 80% probability of having thyroid cancer are going to have thyroid surgery.
http://fukushima-diary.com/2013/03/express-7-more-fukushima-children-to-have-thyroid-surgery/
Supposedly they are having surgery to determine if they have cancer. Say what?